AFC PREDICTIONS

Mid-Season review for every division in the NFC and predictions going forward.

By Mark

AFC EAST

Aside from the Miami Dolphins, the AFC race is still wide open at the halfway point this year.  Surprisingly, the Buffalo Bills came out of the gates hot this season and have been able to maintain a steady pace to an impressive 5-2 record matching that of the almighty Patriots.  Under the leadership of Chan Gailey, Ryan Fitzpatrick has become more then just “serviceable.”  Coupled with the emerging Fred Jackson and some young stud targets like Stevie Johnson, this offense is no joke.  The Bills’ defense gives up a few too many points for my liking, but does cause a lot of turnovers. 

Let’s get this out of the way.  The Miami Dolphins, while competitive in many games, just aren’t good at all.  While I normally don’t condone cheering against your own team in order to land a higher draft pick, I think Andrew Luck is the only thing that can make this franchise worth talking about for the next 10 years.  They are one of many teams still in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes, but I’ll give them the inside track, especially considering they haven’t won a home game in quite some time.

 

The New York Jets need a win this week desperately, or they may become an afterthought within their own division, let alone the AFC.  Rex Ryan continues to open his mouth, guaranteeing another Super Bowl but the team has yet to win on the road this season.  The defense has solidified in recent weeks, but I’m still not sure if I can trust Mark Sanchez on a week-to-week basis.  The Jets had better turn it around soon or there may be some serious changes looming on the horizon.  However, they are a team that I believe can get hot at the right time, and if they do, they could make a run at their third straight appearance in the AFC championship.

 

The New England Patriots had things rolling once again this year.  Brady and the offense had been so good that they were able to somewhat overshadow the holes in the defense.  Even last week against Pittsburgh, the Pats were in it until the very end despite being out gained but a few hundred yards.  New England has switched to a predominantly 4-3 defensive scheme this year, and it’s showing.  Teams are gashing their weak secondary though the air.  While the offense has been consistently good, just like many years past, I do feel as though Bill Bellichick has swung and missed badly in recent drafts, not necessarily addressing team needs.  This team is getting older, especially on offense and it might be starting to show.

 

PREDICTIONS

I still favor the Patriots to win this division.  When push comes to shove, I can’t go against Brady and Bellichick, even though the Bills are currently in first place.  Speaking of the Bills, I’ll go as far as to say that they will finish with 10 wins and be a main contender for a wild card position.  I think that the Jets’ early season struggles on the road will come back to cost them this year, narrowly missing the post season this time around.  As far as the Dolphins, they might muster a win or 2, but for their fans’ sake, I hope not.

AFC SOUTH

For the first time in a long time, the Indianapolis Colts are not the run-away favorites to win this division.  It has become what seems to be a 2 team race for the AFC South crown, and likely that team will be the only representative of the division in the playoffs.

 

Despite losing key defensive lineman/outside linebacker, Mario Williams for the season, the Houston Texans finally have a defense worth talking about.  Key off-season additions Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning, to the secondary and new defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, have infused some new life into what used to be a lifeless defensive unit.  The injury bug has hit the offense as well.  All-world running back, Arian Foster, missed some action early and Andre Johnson has been hampered by a hamstring injury for nearly a month now.  However, despite these injuries the offense has been able to put up enough points behind a great zone-blocking scheme and the underrated Matt Schaub.

 

Trying to figure out the Tennessee Titans is like trying to figure out what is wrong with Chris Johnson.  Losing young wide-out, Kenny Britt, to a season-ending injury hasn’t helped Matt Hasselbeck in his first year as Titan’s quarterback.  However, he has kept the ship on the right path to a certain degree.  While they’ve beaten some teams that they should have (Browns, Broncos and Colts), they have blow-out losses against the Steelers and Texans.  A weak victory against the Ravens has this team still in contention for a divisional crown, but they’ll have to play more consistently if they want to make a serious push.

 

The Jaguars are one of those teams where no one knows where they are headed, literally and figuratively.  A potential move to Los Angeles might be just what this team needs to become relevant again.  While Blaine Gabbert is a work in progress, coach Jack Del Rio won’t be the one doing the molding.  It’s been noted that unless the Jags make the playoffs this year, Del Rio will be out of a job.  Maurice Jones Drew continues to do everything he can to churn out W’s for this team, but one man, no matter how Herculean, can only do so much.  A lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball has this team struggling mightily.

 

The Indianapolis Colts are in a very unfamiliar position.  It’s amazing how much of a difference one player can make.  But maybe it’s less astonishing when you realize that player is Peyton Manning.  The perennial Pro Bowler has been sidelined the entire season to this point after a third neck surgery.  I sincerely thought that this team had enough talent at other positions to put together a few wins, but apparently I was wrong.  The big question this off-season will be, if the Colts end up with the worst record in the NFL, should they draft Andrew Luck with the number one overall pick in April?  This, in my opinion, isn’t the worst scenario.  There is usually a huge transitional gap that could last several years, between franchise quarterbacks.  How many years were there between Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger?  Phil Simms and Eli Manning?  Dan Marino and…?  Oh wait.

 

PREDICTIONS

I don’t see any serious threats to the Houston Texans in this division.  If Tennessee can become a little more consistent, they may be able to pull it out down the stretch, but that’s a big “if.”  I see Houston finishing off the division a few weeks early, coasting to a 10-win season.  Tennessee will be left in limbo, hovering around .500.  Meanwhile, the Jags and Colts will be prepping their draft boards early this season, if they haven’t already begun.

AFC WEST 

Potentially the most competitive in the AFC up to this point this year, the AFC is wide open at the halfway mark.  Three out of the four teams within the division have identical records of 4-3, with the Broncos bringing up the rear. 

 

I will be the first to admit, I thought this could be the year for the Chargers to make a serious Super Bowl push.  There is still time, but they need to turn it on in a hurry.  However if there is one team capable of getting hot as the weather gets cold, it’s the Bolts.  A traditionally slow starting team, the Chargers find themselves with a winning record heading into November.  If the past is any indication of things to come, the Chargers are about to go on a run.  But in order to do so, Phillip Rivers is going to have to limit his turnovers (league leading 11 interceptions) and start finding his rhythm again with this offense. 

 

Todd Haley led the Kansas City Chiefs to an AFC West title and playoff appearance last season.  However, 3 weeks into this season, the hope for a repeat was fading quickly.  The Chiefs lost explosive running back, Jamaal Charles, to a torn ACL for the season and quickly fell behind the pack, losing their first 3 games.  However, the Chiefs have turned it around within the past month, going 4-0 and staking claim to first place again in the AFC West.  Phillip Rivers may have handed them a victory on Monday Night Football, but at this point, the Chiefs will take it.  Being in contention for another divisional crown is not something this team saw within grasp a few weeks ago.  Now they are right in the thick of things.

 

The Oakland Raiders are the final team with a 4-3 record within the AFC West.  Just when Jason Campbell was coming into his own and leading Raider Nation to a successful start to the 2011-2012 campaign, he was lost for the season due to injury.  So the Raiders did what the Raiders do.  They made a huge splash, trading a first round pick and a conditional pick (could be another first rounder) for Carson Palmer.  I’ll go on record as to saying I have never been a Palmer believer, so we will have to wait and see how this goes.  Often-injured running back Darren McFadden started off the season with a bang, leading the league in rushing for the first month and a half, but has been bit by the injury big once again.  If healthy, this team will go as far as Carson Palmer can take them.  Yikes.

 

It’s Tebow Time!  Is there any franchise in more of a mess than the Denver Broncos?  Contrary to my colleague’s beliefs, I think Tim Tebow is flat out terrible.  Yes, he was a winner in college, but he will never be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.  I have nothing against the kid, except for the fact that he has been given his current status as starting quarterback for the Broncos due to a popularity contest.  But it’s not all on him.  The Broncos are a mess all across the board.  I believe in John Fox as a head coach.  But good luck, because I’m not sure if anyone can clean up the mess that Josh Childress has left behind.

 

PREDICTIONS

I just can’t bring myself to go against the Chargers in this instance.  I don’t believe in Norv Turner,  but I do believe in Phillip Rivers.  I think he will find his groove and ride it into the playoffs.  I think what we have seen from him thus far this year is an aberration and better things are on the horizon.  I see San Diego making a push towards 10 or 11 wins, while the Raiders and Chiefs will finish right around the 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 mark.  The Broncos are lost.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers and Ravens are at it again, only this time, the Bengals have crashed the party.  These three teams have combined record of 16-6, while the Browns are a respectable 3-4. 

 

The Week 1 blowout of the Steelers at the hands of the Ravens is not what we are used to seeing when these two hook-up for their biannual bloodbath.  After this loss, and another loss to Houston a few weeks later, the public was seriously questioning the Pittsburgh organization.  Are they too old?  Are they too slow?  Is their offensive line really that bad?  Well in recent weeks, the Steelers have rattled off 4 straight wins and remain undefeated at Heinz Field so far this year.  Big Ben is entering the prime of his career.  While some of his faithful targets like Hines Ward and Heath Miller are getting a little long in the tooth, the emergence of the “Young Money Crew” (Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, and Antonio Brown), has this team scoring more and more points as the weeks pass.  If the offensive line can continue to gel and if the defense can get healthy, this team is a serious threat once again in the AFC.

 

The Ravens are somewhat of an enigma thus far.  They blew out the Steelers to open the season, but followed that up with a loss to the Titans.  They later lost to the Jaguars on Monday night, but then followed that with a record-setting 21-point comeback at home against Arizona.  The Ravens defense is the best in the NFL, allowing only a total of 110 points this year, even with aging vets like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  They are phenomenal at making turnovers really hurt, turning them into scores.  Ray Rice is a stud and young speedster Torrey Smith is a great compliment to Anquan Boldin.  Like many other teams, this squad will go as far as their quarterback takes them.  I for one am not a believer in Joe Flacco, but he has time to prove me wrong.  And it could start this weekend in Pittsburgh.

 

No more Ocho-Cinco?  No more T.O.?  No more Carson Palmer?  No problem?  The Bengals, led by rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, have come out of nowhere this year and could shock the landscape of the AFC come playoff time.  Marvin Lewis has always had his defense ready to play, but now that he has command of the locker room, this team has a very, very bright future.  If I was a Bengals fan, I’d be excited, but reserved as well.  Four of their five wins this year have come against the Browns, Broncos, Jaguars, and Colts.  They have yet to play either Pittsburgh o Baltimore.  If they can split with those teams, they may have a sneaky shot at a wild card spot, or even the division.

 

I thought this year would be a big leap forward for the Browns.  And while a 3-4 record might just be that leap, I don’t see any signs of things pointing in the right direction.  I expected Colt McCoy to really put up some numbers this year.  Is it just me, or this the same old Browns?  Their defense is commendable, even though it’s hard to name more than a player or two.  The offense simply doesn’t score points.  As the season wears on, I really expect this team to stagger backwards.  Side note: Either the Madden Curse is real or Peyton Hillis has huge arms but is a wimp…which is it?  I prefer to believe both are true.

 

PREDICTIONS

The Browns will finish at the bottom of this division, nothing new to them.  They’ll then waste a top 12 pick in the draft, again..nothing new.  While I like what the Bengals are doing, I just don’t think they have the staying power to hang with the Ravens and Steelers the rest of the way.  Besides, their schedule is about to get much tougher.  So once again it comes down to Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  I’ll give the edge to the Ravens because I think they are a healthier bunch, and have a better defense.  However I think both teams will make the playoffs and could meet for a third time down the road.  We can only hope.